25 Jul 2011

Diagrams of Phillips' Fluid Mechanical Model of the economy

First of the real thing...
...then as a cartoonist in Punch depicted it!

A brief interview of me by David Hales

At the ESSA summer school in Surrey.


To see other interviews, including Paul Omerod, Warrent Thorngate and Edmund Chattoe-Brown go to David's youtube page http://www.youtube.com/user/daphal

21 Jul 2011

A paper on simulation experiment design for social simulation

Opening the ‘Black Box’ of Simulations: Transparency of Simulation Models and Effective Results Reports Through the Systematic Design of Experiments

Iris Lorscheid
Hamburg University of Technology

Heine Bernd-Oliver
affiliation not provided to SSRN

Matthias Meyer
Technical University Hamburg-Harburg (TUHH)


Many still view simulation models as a black box. This paper argues that perceptions could change if the systematic design of experiments (DOE) for simulation research was fully realized. DOE can increase (1) the transparency of simulation model behavior and (2) the effectiveness of reporting simulation results. Based on DOE principles, we develop a systematic procedure to guide the analysis of simulation models as well as concrete templates for sharing the results. A simulation model investigating the performance of learning algorithms in an economic mechanism design context illustrates our suggestions. Overall, the proposed systematic procedure for applying DOE principles complements current initiatives for a more standardized simulation research process.


Bruce Edmonds

19 Jul 2011

Simulation Summer School Slides

I am at the ESSA Summer School at Surrey University.  I lasts the whole week.

All the slides (as they are uploaded) will be at:

My talk (yesterday) was entitled "The Impossibility of Social Simulation" and you will find the slides at the above link.


It is often forgotten how difficult the task of a social simulator is.  In this talk I start by discussing some of these difficulties.  I move on to discussing some of trade-offs that are inevitable with social simulation, including that between relevance and rigour.  These difficulties and trade-offs are related to the various possible purposes for the simulation of social phenomena including those of conceptual clarification, prediction, explanation and mechanism analysis.  Those embarking on this complex and difficult task are exhorted not to fudge these issues, but to consider them carefully, make them explicit and accept the consequences of their choices.