Polls were not wrong with Brexit when undecideds are included

 Polls often just give the proportion of those voting for or against, ignoring the undecided (indeed trying to force them to decide). Plotting the poll results leading up to brexit with the % leave vs. the % undecided gives a better picture (above). The red dot is the final result which is pretty consistent with the general trend. The stay vs. undecided graph is very similar (below).

This suggests (but does not prove of course) that if everybody were forced to vote Brexit would have been narrowly rejected. Indeed if the fitted trend line were true, if the undecided (those eligible but not voting) were reduced to 20% (from 27%) the result might have been against Brexit.

Artificially forcing people to decide or ignoring the undecided in polls may not give the most accurate picture.  For completeness here is are the poll results (just remain % - leave % adjusted for known biases in online and telephone polls) over time.

If you plot the % undecided in poll sequence order you seem to get a trend downwards, but that is not reflected in the final result (Red dot).

Only 12% of the Electorate voted #Brexit for the primary reason of controlling immigration

The number of people who voted for Leave for the primary reason of controlling immigrant numbers is quite small - only 12% of the electorate (or 9% of the total Population). Thus the referendum can NOT be used to justify a Brexit where controlling immigration is the dominant criterion for an acceptable deal. The figures are illustrated here - the purple bar marked "*" represents those voted for Leave for the primary reason of controlling immigrant.

The figures behind this graphic are as follows.

The figures come from the electoral commission, and the most recent House of Commons Library briefing paper on migration. The estimate for the proportion of leave voters for whom controlling immigration was the most important factor were inferred from the polls Lord Ashcroft funded at the time (exit polls in this case).

See also the Telegraph's article "Did Britain really vote Brexit to cut immigration?" on the 29th June 2016.

Future Seminar in London: Policy Making Using Modelling in a Complex World, 18th July

"Policy Making Using Modelling in a Complex World" will be held on 18th July 2016 at the Food Standards Agency, 125 Kingsway, London  1-2pm (12.45pm prompt registration)

Presented by Professor Bruce Edmonds, Director of the Manchester Metropolitan University Business School.


Seminar Abstract:

The consequences of complexity in the real world are discussed together with some meaningful ways of understanding and managing such situations.  The implications of such complexity are that many social systems are fundamentally unpredictable by nature, especially when in the presence of structural change (transitions). This implies consequences for the way we model, but also for the way models are used in the policy process.

We discuss the problems arising from a too narrow focus on quantification in managing complex systems, in particular those of optimisation. We criticise some of the approaches that ignore these difficulties and pretend to approximately forecast using the impact of policy options using over-simple models.  However, lack of predictability does not automatically imply a lack of managerial possibilities. We will discuss how some insights and tools from "Complexity Science" can help with such management.  Managing complex systems requires a good understanding of the dynamics of the system in question - to know, before they occur, some of the real possibilities that might occur and be ready so they can be reacted to as responsively as possible. Agent based simulation will be discussed as a tool that is suitable for this task, especially in conjunction with model-informed data visualisation.

*Refreshments available, please bring your own lunch.

The event is free but you need to register at: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/cecan-seminar-policy-making-using-modelling-in-a-complex-world-tickets-26323569505

#cfpm 

Remember what a dump the UK was back in 1973 before we joined the EU

Of course this was not all to do with the EU, but the attitudes have changed a lot, from a largely failing inward-looking country to a creative outward-looking one. The migration of people to and from the EU helped in this change. We have had a flood of creative, hard working people entering the UK contributing towards our academic, business, financial, sporting, artistic and high-tech sectors. Please let us not go back - we were not great then at all.