5 Nov 2020

My summary of the ABC news analysis of US election exit polls

This is my summary of the Analysis of US exit polls done by ABC news. Full details at: https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/exit-polls-2020-us-presidential-election-results-analysis

On the leaders, the parties or issues that have become partisan, division was also highly partisan and symmetric, including views on: the economy, abortion, covid, counting votes "properly", health care, climate change, BLM/racism, and the competency of the Federal government.

Looking at all other factors which indicated a 60% or more tendency to vote for Republican or Democrat it found:

  • Those voting Democrat had a tendency to be: Black, Hispanic, Asian, had an advanced degree, in a worse/same financial situation, valued personal qualities of candidate (good judgement candidate, can unite country), had a positive view of state voting, might have voted for independents before, came from city over 50K residents, or were young (18-29, non-married women, first time voters).
  • Those voting Republican had a tendency to be: White 45-59, Christian, may have decided their vote in the last week, were doing better financially than 2016, liked a strong leader.

Extracts from the full details for these factors are as follows:

Are you:

(15,318 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

Black 12% responded

87%

12%

Hispanic/Latino 13% responded

66%

32%

Asian 3% responded

63%

31%

 

In which age group are you?

(15,452 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

18-29 17% responded

62%

35%

 

Age by race

(15,205 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

White 45-59 18% responded

38%

60%

 

Which best describes your education? You have:

(15,344 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

An advanced degree after a bachelor's degree (such as JD, MA, MBA, MD, PhD) 16% responded

62%

36%

 

Gender by marital status

(3,748 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

Non-married women 24% responded

62%

37%

 

Are you:

(2,470 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

Protestant 14% responded

28%

71%

Catholic 27% responded

37%

62%

Other Christian 31% responded

32%

67%

 

Are you gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender?

(3,615 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

Yes 7% responded

61%

28%

 

Is this the first year you have ever voted?

(3,953 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

Yes 13% responded

66%

32%

 

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election?

(3,731 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

In the last week 2% responded

30%

63%

 

Compared to four years ago, is your family's financial situation:

(3,731 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

Better today 41% responded

25%

72%

Worse today 20% responded

74%

23%

About the same 38% responded

64%

33%

 

 

Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? (CHECK ONLY ONE)

(3,845 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

Can unite the country 19% responded

76%

23%

Is a strong leader 32% responded

28%

71%

Has good judgment 23% responded

68%

27%

 

Which was more important in your vote for president today?

(3,845 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

My candidate's personal qualities 23% responded

66%

30%

 

Do you think your state makes it easy or difficult for you to vote?

(3,741 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

Somewhat easy 25% responded

63%

36%

 

Was your vote for president mainly:

(3,870 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

Against his opponent 24% responded

68%

30%

 

In the 2016 election for president, did you vote for:

(3,870 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

Hillary Clinton (Dem) 40% responded

95%

4%

Donald Trump (Rep) 42% responded

8%

92%

Other5 % responded

62%

24%

Did not vote 11% responded

61%

37%

 

Population of area, three categories

(15,343 Respondents)

Voted (D)

Voted (R)

City over 50,000 30% responded

60%

37%